Hi,
I have gone thru the UNH by using AlpaQuadrant methods. Following is my thought and 1 question, please help to review. Thanks in advance!
Recent plunge of share price due to 3 reasons.
- Earning drop
- CEO resign
- Fraud case
- Recent earning(TTM) raise back. This company has high recurring business(monthly and annually premium).The business moat is strong like their scale is big, network effect, retention rate.
- CEO resign but the former CEO resumed, I checked the former CEO is the Chairman and hold a lot of UNH shares. So he has the capability and willing to push up the stock price.
- Fraud case become better now and even the fine for the fraud case only small amount to UNH.
1 Answers
Hi Guo Cai,
I’ve never analysed this company before, but your thesis sounds logical. If the fraud case is a minor issue and the premium isn’t affected by any regulatory changes, it could hold up. Just note that the 2024 figures include a one-off item of about $8,310M, you’ll need to adjust for that to get a more accurate annual EPS.
I’ve never analysed this company before, but your thesis sounds logical. If the fraud case is a minor issue and the premium isn’t affected by any regulatory changes, it could hold up. Just note that the 2024 figures include a one-off item of about $8,310M, you’ll need to adjust for that to get a more accurate annual EPS.
thanks for your advice! Victor
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