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QuestionsCategory: Stock ScreeningUnited Health[UNH] Analysis
Guo Cai Ng asked 10 months ago
Hi, I have gone thru the UNH by using AlpaQuadrant methods. Following is my thought and 1 question, please help to review. Thanks in advance! Recent plunge of share price due to 3 reasons.
  1. Earning drop
  2. CEO resign
  3. Fraud case
My thought for these are,
  1. Recent earning(TTM) raise back. This company has high recurring business(monthly and annually premium).The business moat is strong like their scale is big, network effect, retention rate.
  2. CEO resign but the former CEO resumed, I checked the former CEO is the Chairman and hold a lot of UNH shares. So he has the capability and willing to push up the stock price.
  3. Fraud case become better now and even the fine for the fraud case only small amount to UNH.
The score are B-83.3%, M-75%, F-68.4%, V-77.8%.  B - strong moat, high recurring, asset light M - Others are good only didnt do share buyback F - Lower by recent earning V - There is the only question that would like to check. Annual EPS(until 31st Dec 2024) is 15.51, EPS TTM is 23.25. PE average for recent 10 years is 24. Based on these data to calculate intrinsic value will be $372 and $558. Which are big diff and diff in safety margin, if you were me which EPS u will use for calculate for intrinsic value?
1 Answers
Victor Chng Staff answered 10 months ago
Hi Guo Cai,


I’ve never analysed this company before, but your thesis sounds logical. If the fraud case is a minor issue and the premium isn’t affected by any regulatory changes, it could hold up. Just note that the 2024 figures include a one-off item of about $8,310M, you’ll need to adjust for that to get a more accurate annual EPS.
Guo Cai Ng replied 10 months ago

thanks for your advice! Victor